Alexei Andreev Jan 6 2017
Jan 6 2017
More on impeachment in United States: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_in_the_United_States
Note that PredictIt currently thinks there's a 7% chance Trump will be impeached within the first 100 days.
That seems high to me for the first 100 days, since Republicans control both the house and the Senate. However, things could change at the midterm elections in 2018.
Overall I'm going with a 1 in 6 chance during the first term.
There have been 3 US presidents where impeachment procedures have taken place against a president. That's ~7% of US presidents. I think that sets a good prior.
Does this track history of predictions so that an update after new information can lead to a new aggregate brier score or some other scoring system can be applied? Otherwise the system doesn't encourage many small updates which at least the GJP suggests is ideal for accuracy in this kind of question.