What is the probability that impeachment proceedings will be commenced against President Donald Trump during his first term?


by Alexei Andreev Jan 6 2017 updated Jan 6 2017

More on impeachment in United States: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_in_the_United_States


Eric Rogstad

Note that PredictIt currently thinks there's a 7% chance Trump will be impeached within the first 100 days.

That seems high to me for the first 100 days, since Republicans control both the house and the Senate. However, things could change at the midterm elections in 2018.

Overall I'm going with a 1 in 6 chance during the first term.

Travis Rivera

There have been 3 US presidents where impeachment procedures have taken place against a president. That's ~7% of US presidents. I think that sets a good prior.

Brandon Reinhart

Does this track history of predictions so that an update after new information can lead to a new aggregate brier score or some other scoring system can be applied? Otherwise the system doesn't encourage many small updates which at least the GJP suggests is ideal for accuracy in this kind of question.