"I believe that this should be $(2 : 3 : 1)$ rat..."

https://arbital.com/p/86w

by Glenn Field Apr 6 2017


We have three hypotheses, which we'll call , and and respectively, with relative odds of The relative likelihoods that these three hypotheses assign to a coin landing heads is ; the relative likelihoods that they assign to a coin landing tails is Thus, the posterior odds for all three hypotheses are:

I believe that this should be rather than .