# "> "you're allowed to increase P(BadDriver) a li..."

https://arbital.com/p/986

by Dewi Morgan Sep 25 2018

If you get in a car accident, and don't want to relinquish the hypothesis that you're a great driver, then you can find all sorts of reasons $$"the road was slippery\! my car freaked out\!"$$ why $\\mathbb P(e \\mid GoodDriver)$ is not too low\. But $\\mathbb P(e \\mid BadDriver)$ is also part of the update equation, and the "bad driver" hypothesis better predicts the evidence\. Thus, your first impulse, when deciding how to update your beliefs in the face of a car accident, should not be "But my preferred hypothesis allows for this evidence\!" It should instead be "Points to the 'bad driver' hypothesis for predicting this evidence better than the alternatives\!" $$And remember, you're allowed to increase $\\mathbb P(BadDriver)$ a little bit, while still thinking that it's less than 50% probable\.$$

"you're allowed to increase P(BadDriver) a little bit,"

No, you're really not.