"Wrong, they are exactly the same distances. I r..."

https://arbital.com/p/9h9

by Eyal Roth Mar 18 2019 updated Mar 18 2019


Evidence you are twice as likely to see if the hypothesis is true than if it is false is bits of evidence and a \-bit update, regardless of how confident or unconfident you were to start with\-\-the strength of new evidence, and the distance we update, shouldn't depend on our prior belief\. If your credence in something is 0 bits\-\-neither positive or negative belief\-\-then you think the odds are 1:1\. The distance between and is much greater than the distance between and

Wrong, they are exactly the same distances. I read the next paragraph so I get where you were going with this, but I find it confusing to start off with a blatantly wrong claim, especially when the next line compares 0.11 to 0.1 (11% to 10%) -- not to 0.100001 -- in order to describe how the significance of 0.00001 gets "lost in translation" when speaking in probabilities and not in bits.