"Why the capital letters? Is this suppose to ref..."


by Eyal Roth Mar 26 2019

A stereotypical subjectivist would say: "Well, prediction markets tend to be pretty well\-calibrated about this sort of thing, in the sense that when prediction markets assign 20% probability to an event, it happens around 1 time in 5\. And the prediction markets are currently betting on Hillary at about 3 : 1 odds\. Thus, I'm comfortable saying she has about a 75% chance of winning\. If someone offered me 20 : 1 odds against Clinton — they get \$1 if she loses, I get \$20 if she wins — then I'd take the bet\. I suppose you could refuse to take that bet on the grounds that you Just Can't Talk About Probabilities of One\-off Events, but then you'd be pointlessly passing up a really good bet\."

Why the capital letters? Is this suppose to refer or to link to something?