Well-calibrated probabilities


by Eliezer Yudkowsky Dec 18 2015 updated Dec 18 2015

Even if you're fairly ignorant, you can still strive to ensure that when you say "70% probability", it's true 70% of the time.

A system of probability assignments is "well-calibrated" if things to which it assigns 70% probability, happen around 70% of the time. This is the goal to which [ bounded rationalists] aspire - not to perfectly predict everything, but to be no more or less certain than our information warrants.