If you have some way of scoring how much you prefer outcomes, and you can guess the probability that an action leads to an outcome, then you can weigh actions by looking at their average expected scores.

https://arbital.com/p/expected_utility

by Eliezer Yudkowsky Dec 2 2015 updated Dec 16 2015

Scoring actions based on the average score of their probable consequences.

If you have some way of scoring how much you prefer outcomes, and you can guess the probability that an action leads to an outcome, then you can weigh actions by looking at their average expected scores.