Ignorance prior


by Eliezer Yudkowsky Feb 17 2016 updated Mar 3 2016

Key equations for quantitative Bayesian problems, describing exactly the right shape for what we believed before observation.

An ignorance prior is a a prior probability function on some problem of interest, usually with the intended properties of being simple to describe and facilitating good learning from the evidence. A classic example would be the inductive prior for Laplace's Rule of Succession.