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text: '[summary: In this post, [@33] talks about how [6pn] used to a locus of discussion, and that it is worth seeing whether Less Wrong or some similar such place may be a viable locus again in order to help with reducing [-existential_risk].]\n\n This post discusses the following claims:\n\n1. [claim([6tm])]\n> The world is locked right now in a [deadly](http://www.existential-risk.org/) [puzzle](https://books.google.com/books/about/Superintelligence.html?id=7_H8AwAAQBAJ), and needs something like a miracle of good thought if it is to have the survival odds one might wish the world to have.\n\n2. [claim([6tn])]\n> Despite all priors and appearances, our little community (the\n> "aspiring rationality" community; the "effective altruist" project;\n> efforts to create an existential win; etc.) has a shot at seriously\n> helping with this puzzle. This sounds like hubris, but it is at this\n> point at least partially a matter of track record. %%note: By track\n> record, I have in mind most obviously that AI risk is now relatively\n> credible and mainstream, and that this seems to have been due largely\n> to (the direct + indirect effects of) Eliezer, Nick Bostrom, and\n> others who were poking around the general aspiring rationality and\n> effective altruist space in 2008 or so, with significant help from the\n> extended communities that eventually grew up around this space. More\n> controversially, it seems to me that this set of people has probably\n> (though not indubitably) helped with locating specific angles of\n> traction around these problems that are worth pursuing; with locating\n> other angles on existential risk; and with locating techniques for\n> forecasting/prediction (e.g., there seems to be similarity between the\n> techniques already being practiced in this community, and those Philip\n> Tetlock documented as working). %%\n\n3. [claim([6tq])]\n> To aid in solving this puzzle, we must probably find a way to think\n> together, accumulatively. We need to think about technical problems in\n> AI safety, but also about the full surrounding context -- everything\n> to do with understanding what the heck kind of a place the world is,\n> such that that kind of place may contain cheat codes and trap doors\n> toward achieving an existential win. We probably also need to think\n> about "ways of thinking" -- both the individual thinking skills, and\n> the community conversational norms, that can cause our puzzle-solving\n> to work better. %%note: Again, it may seem somewhat hubristic to claim\n> that that a relatively small community can usefully add to the world's\n> analysis across a broad array of topics (such as the summed topics\n> that bear on "How do we create an existential win?"). But it is\n> generally smallish groups (rather than widely dispersed millions of\n> people) that can actually bring analysis together; history has often\n> involved relatively small intellectual circles that make concerted\n> progress; and even if things are already known that bear on how to\n> create an existential win, one must probably still combine and\n> synthesize that understanding into a smallish set of people that can\n> apply the understanding to AI (or what have you).%%\n\n4. [claim([6tr])]\n> One feature that is pretty helpful here, is if we somehow maintain a\n> single "conversation", rather than a bunch of people separately having\n> thoughts and sometimes taking inspiration from one another. By "a\n> conversation", I mean a space where people can e.g. reply to one\n> another; rely on shared jargon/shorthand/concepts; build on arguments\n> that have been established in common as probably-valid; point out\n> apparent errors and then have that pointing-out be actually taken into\n> account or else replied-to).\n\n5. [claim([6ts])]\n> One feature that really helps things be "a conversation" in this way,\n> is if there is a single Schelling set of posts/etc. that people (in\n> the relevant community/conversation) are supposed to read, and can be\n> assumed to have read. Less Wrong used to be a such place; right now\n> there is no such place; it seems to me highly desirable to form a new\n> such place if we can.\n\n6. [claim([6tt])]\n> We have lately ceased to have a "single conversation" in this way. \n> Good content is still being produced across these communities, but\n> there is no single locus of conversation, such that if you're in a\n> gathering of e.g. five aspiring rationalists, you can take for granted\n> that of course everyone has read posts such-and-such. There is no one\n> place you can post to, where, if enough people upvote your writing,\n> people will reliably read and respond (rather than ignore), and where\n> others will call them out if they later post reasoning that ignores\n> your evidence. Without such a locus, it is hard for conversation to\n> build in the correct way. (And hard for it to turn into arguments and\n> replies, rather than a series of non sequiturs.)',
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