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  text: 'Neat, I'm a contrarian. I guess I should explain why my credence is about 80% different from everyone else's :)\n\nObviously, being off earth would provide essentially no protection from a uFAI. It may, however. shift the odds of us getting an aligned AI in the first place.\n\nMaybe this is because I'm taking this to mean more than most, I only think it helps if well-established and significant, but by my models both the rate of technological progress and ability to coordinate seems to be proportional to something like density of awesome people with a non-terrible incentive structure. Filtering by "paid half a million dollars to get to mars" and designing the incentive structure from scratch seems like an unusually good way to create a dense pocket of awesome people focused on important problems, in a way which is very hard to dilute.\n\nI claim that if we have long enough timelines for a self-sustaining off-earth colony to be created, the first recursively self-improving AGI has a good chance of being built there. And that a strongly filtered group immersed in other hard challenges with and setting up decision-making infrastructure intentionally rather than working with all the normal civilization cruft are more likely to coordinate on safety than earth-based teams.\n\nI do not expect timelines to be long enough that this is an option, so do not endorse this as a sane use of funding. But having an off-earth colony seems way, way more useful than a warm scarf.\n\nI would agree with:\n\n - There are currently much better ways to reduce AI x-risk than funding off-earth colonies. (~96%)\n - It is unlikely that off-earth colonies will be sufficiently established in time to mitigate AI x-risk. (~77%)',
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