{ localUrl: '../page/8zf.html', arbitalUrl: 'https://arbital.com/p/8zf', rawJsonUrl: '../raw/8zf.json', likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'page', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], pageId: '8zf', edit: '2', editSummary: '', prevEdit: '1', currentEdit: '2', wasPublished: 'true', type: 'wiki', title: 'Harry Potter at Ollivander's', clickbait: 'A simple word problem on the application of Bayes rule.', textLength: '1050', alias: '8zf', externalUrl: '', sortChildrenBy: 'likes', hasVote: 'false', voteType: '', votesAnonymous: 'false', editCreatorId: 'VojtaKovarik', editCreatedAt: '2018-01-31 19:59:02', pageCreatorId: 'VojtaKovarik', pageCreatedAt: '2018-01-31 19:57:29', seeDomainId: '0', editDomainId: '2983', submitToDomainId: '0', isAutosave: 'false', isSnapshot: 'false', isLiveEdit: 'true', isMinorEdit: 'false', indirectTeacher: 'false', todoCount: '0', isEditorComment: 'false', isApprovedComment: 'false', isResolved: 'false', snapshotText: '', anchorContext: '', anchorText: '', anchorOffset: '0', mergedInto: '', isDeleted: 'false', viewCount: '7', text: '**Harry Potter went shopping for a magic-wand, only to find out that wand which fits him the most is a twin-wand of the evil Lord Voldemort. How worried should Harry be about a possibility of some sinister connection with Voldemort (as opposed to this just being a coincidence)?**\n\nWe assume that:\n\n - the shop has 15 000 wands on offer;\n - for a typical wizard, any of them is equally likely to be the best fit;\n - upon entering, the unsuspecting Harry puts the odds of any connection with Voldemort at 1 to 1 000 and \n - Harry assumes that if any such connection existed, it would have a 10% chance of affecting the wand-choice.\n\n(example stolen from J.K. Rowling and E. Yudkowsky)\n\nThe solution can be found by applying the [1x8 Bayes' rule]:\n\nBy the assumption, the prior odds are (1 : 1 000). The likelihood ratio is (10% : 1/15000), which puts the updated probability at (1 : 1000) (1/10 : 1/15000) = (1/10 : 1/15) = ( 3 : 2). Therefore, the probability of a ``sinister connection’’ with Voldemort is 60% and Harry should be pretty worried.', metaText: '', isTextLoaded: 'true', isSubscribedToDiscussion: 'false', isSubscribedToUser: 'false', isSubscribedAsMaintainer: 'false', discussionSubscriberCount: '1', maintainerCount: '1', userSubscriberCount: '0', lastVisit: '', hasDraft: 'false', votes: [], voteSummary: 'null', muVoteSummary: '0', voteScaling: '0', currentUserVote: '-2', voteCount: '0', lockedVoteType: '', maxEditEver: '0', redLinkCount: '0', lockedBy: '', lockedUntil: '', nextPageId: '', prevPageId: '', usedAsMastery: 'false', proposalEditNum: '0', permissions: { edit: { has: 'false', reason: 'You don't have domain permission to edit this page' }, proposeEdit: { has: 'true', reason: '' }, delete: { has: 'false', reason: 'You don't have domain permission to delete this page' }, comment: { has: 'false', reason: 'You can't comment in this domain because you are not a member' }, proposeComment: { has: 'true', reason: '' } }, summaries: {}, creatorIds: [ 'VojtaKovarik' ], childIds: [], parentIds: [], commentIds: [], questionIds: [], tagIds: [], relatedIds: [], markIds: [], explanations: [], learnMore: [], requirements: [], subjects: [], lenses: [], lensParentId: '', pathPages: [], learnMoreTaughtMap: {}, learnMoreCoveredMap: {}, learnMoreRequiredMap: {}, editHistory: {}, domainSubmissions: {}, answers: [], answerCount: '0', commentCount: '0', newCommentCount: '0', linkedMarkCount: '0', changeLogs: [ { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '22976', pageId: '8zf', userId: 'VojtaKovarik', edit: '2', type: 'newEdit', createdAt: '2018-01-31 19:59:02', auxPageId: '', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' }, { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '22975', pageId: '8zf', userId: 'VojtaKovarik', edit: '1', type: 'newEdit', createdAt: '2018-01-31 19:57:29', auxPageId: '', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' } ], feedSubmissions: [], searchStrings: {}, hasChildren: 'false', hasParents: 'false', redAliases: {}, improvementTagIds: [], nonMetaTagIds: [], todos: [], slowDownMap: 'null', speedUpMap: 'null', arcPageIds: 'null', contentRequests: {} }