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anchorContext: 'Show answer\n\n\nThere's \\(1 : 9\\) bad vs\\. good widgets\\.\nBad vs\\. good widgets have a \\(12 : 4\\) relative likelihood to spark\\.\nThis simplifies to \\(1 : 9\\) x \\(3 : 1\\) = \\(3 : 9\\) = \\(1 : 3\\), 1 bad sparking widget for every 3 good sparking widgets\\.\nWhich converts to a probability of 1/\\(1\\+3\\) = 1/4 = 25%; that is, 25% of sparking widgets are bad\\.\n\n\nSeeing sparks didn't make us "believe the widget is bad"; the probability only went to 25%, which is less than 50/50\\.  But this doesn't mean we say, "I still believe this widget is good\\!" and toss out the evidence and ignore it\\.  A bad widget is relatively more likely to emit sparks, and therefore seeing this evidence should cause us to think it relatively more likely that the widget is a bad one, even if the probability hasn't yet gone over 50%\\.  We increase our probability from 10% to 25%\\.\n\n\n\n',
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