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text: '### What's the chance that a potentially good partner would flake on the first date?\n\nFrom a test subject for an early version of the Bayes intro:\n\nA 96% OKCupid match canceled their first date for coffee without providing an explanation.\n\nShe estimated that a man like this one had [1rm prior] [1rb odds] of 2 : 5 for desirability vs. undesirability, based on his OKCupid profile and her past experience with 96% matches. She then estimated a 1 : 3 [1rq likelihood ratio] for desirable vs. undesirable men flaking on the first date. This worked out to 2 : 15 [1rp posterior] odds for the man being undesirable, which she decided was unfavorable enough to not pursue him further.\n\nShe [1x3 used this explicitly Bayesian calculation to interrupt a 'worrying' cycle] wherein she was focusing on one consideration, then a different consideration, arguing for pursuing further / not pursuing further. Making up numbers and doing the Bayesian calculation [1x3 terminated this cycle].',
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