{ localUrl: '../page/likelihood_function.html', arbitalUrl: 'https://arbital.com/p/likelihood_function', rawJsonUrl: '../raw/56s.json', likeableId: '2993', likeableType: 'page', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '3', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '3', individualLikes: [ 'EricBruylant', 'NateSoares', 'SzymonWilczyski' ], pageId: 'likelihood_function', edit: '3', editSummary: '', prevEdit: '2', currentEdit: '3', wasPublished: 'true', type: 'wiki', title: 'Likelihood function', clickbait: '', textLength: '2100', alias: 'likelihood_function', externalUrl: '', sortChildrenBy: 'likes', hasVote: 'false', voteType: '', votesAnonymous: 'false', editCreatorId: 'AlexeiAndreev', editCreatedAt: '2016-08-02 17:12:50', pageCreatorId: 'NateSoares', pageCreatedAt: '2016-07-07 06:09:23', seeDomainId: '0', editDomainId: 'AlexeiAndreev', submitToDomainId: '0', isAutosave: 'false', isSnapshot: 'false', isLiveEdit: 'true', isMinorEdit: 'false', indirectTeacher: 'false', todoCount: '0', isEditorComment: 'false', isApprovedComment: 'true', isResolved: 'false', snapshotText: '', anchorContext: '', anchorText: '', anchorOffset: '0', mergedInto: '', isDeleted: 'false', viewCount: '126', text: 'Let's say you have a piece of evidence $e$ and a set of hypotheses $\\mathcal H.$ Each $H_i \\in \\mathcal H$ assigns some [56v likelihood] to $e.$ The function $\\mathcal L_{e}(H_i)$ that reports this likelihood for each $H_i \\in \\mathcal H$ is known as a "likelihood function."\n\nFor example, let's say that the evidence is $e_c$ = "Mr. Boddy was killed with a candlestick," and the hypotheses are $H_S$ = "Miss Scarlett did it," $H_M$ = "Colonel Mustard did it," and $H_P$ = "Mrs. Peacock did it." Furthermore, if Miss Scarlett was the murderer, she's 20% likely to have used a candlestick. By contrast, if Colonel Mustard did it, he's 10% likely to have used a candlestick, and if Mrs. Peacock did it, she's only 1% likely to have used a candlestick. In this case, the likelihood function is\n\n$$\\mathcal L_{e_c}(h) = \n\\begin{cases}\n0.2 & \\text{if $h = H_S$} \\\\\n0.1 & \\text{if $h = H_M$} \\\\\n0.01 & \\text{if $h = H_P$} \\\\\n\\end{cases}\n$$\n\nFor an example using a continuous function, consider a possibly-biased coin whose bias $b$ to come up heads on any particular coinflip might be anywhere between $0$ and $1$. Suppose we observe the coin to come up heads, tails, and tails. We will denote this evidence $e_{HTT}.$ The likelihood function over each hypothesis $H_b$ = "the coin is biased to come up heads $b$ portion of the time" for $b \\in [0, 1]$ is:\n\n$$\\mathcal L_{e_{HTT}}(H_b) = b\\cdot (1-b)\\cdot (1-b).$$\n\nThere's no reason to [1rk normalize] likelihood functions so that they sum to 1 — they aren't probability distributions, they're functions expressing each hypothesis' propensity to yield the observed evidence. For example, if the evidence was really obvious ($e_s$ = "the sun rose this morning,") it might be the case that almost all hypotheses have a very high likelihood, in which case the sum of the likelihood function will be much more than 1.\n\nLikelihood functions carry _absolute_ likelihood information, and therefore, they contain information that [1rq relative likelihoods] do not. Namely, absolute likelihoods can be used to check a hypothesis for [227 strict confusion].', metaText: '', isTextLoaded: 'true', isSubscribedToDiscussion: 'false', isSubscribedToUser: 'false', isSubscribedAsMaintainer: 'false', discussionSubscriberCount: '1', maintainerCount: '1', userSubscriberCount: '0', lastVisit: '', hasDraft: 'false', votes: [], voteSummary: [ '0', '0', '0', '0', '0', '0', '0', '0', '0', '0' ], muVoteSummary: '0', voteScaling: '0', currentUserVote: '-2', voteCount: '0', lockedVoteType: '', maxEditEver: '0', redLinkCount: '0', lockedBy: '', lockedUntil: '', nextPageId: '', prevPageId: '', usedAsMastery: 'false', proposalEditNum: '0', permissions: { edit: { has: 'false', reason: 'You don't have domain permission to edit this page' }, proposeEdit: { has: 'true', reason: '' }, delete: { has: 'false', reason: 'You don't have domain permission to delete this page' }, comment: { has: 'false', reason: 'You can't comment in this domain because you are not a member' }, proposeComment: { has: 'true', reason: '' } }, summaries: { Summary: 'Let's say you have a piece of evidence $e$ and a set of hypotheses $\\mathcal H.$ Each $H_i \\in \\mathcal H$ assigns some [56v likelihood] to $e.$ The function $\\mathcal L_{e}(H_i)$ that reports this likelihood for each $H_i \\in \\mathcal H$ is known as a "likelihood function."' }, creatorIds: [ 'NateSoares', 'AlexeiAndreev' ], childIds: [], parentIds: [ 'bayesian_likelihood' ], commentIds: [], questionIds: [], tagIds: [ 'c_class_meta_tag' ], relatedIds: [], markIds: [], explanations: [ { id: '5762', parentId: 'likelihood_function', childId: 'bayes_rule_odds', type: 'subject', creatorId: 'AlexeiAndreev', createdAt: '2016-08-01 23:33:51', level: '1', isStrong: 'true', everPublished: 'true' }, { id: '5836', parentId: 'likelihood_function', childId: 'likelihood_function', type: 'subject', creatorId: 'AlexeiAndreev', createdAt: '2016-08-02 17:09:22', level: '1', isStrong: 'true', everPublished: 'true' } ], learnMore: [], requirements: [ { id: '5837', parentId: 'math2', childId: 'likelihood_function', type: 'requirement', creatorId: 'AlexeiAndreev', createdAt: '2016-08-02 17:10:08', level: '2', isStrong: 'true', everPublished: 'true' }, { id: '5838', parentId: 'bayesian_likelihood', childId: 'likelihood_function', type: 'requirement', creatorId: 'AlexeiAndreev', createdAt: '2016-08-02 17:10:29', level: '2', isStrong: 'true', everPublished: 'true' } ], subjects: [ { id: '5836', parentId: 'likelihood_function', childId: 'likelihood_function', type: 'subject', creatorId: 'AlexeiAndreev', createdAt: '2016-08-02 17:09:22', level: '1', isStrong: 'true', everPublished: 'true' }, { id: '5839', parentId: 'bayesian_likelihood', childId: 'likelihood_function', type: 'subject', creatorId: 'AlexeiAndreev', createdAt: '2016-08-02 17:10:40', level: '2', isStrong: 'false', everPublished: 'true' } ], lenses: [], lensParentId: '', pathPages: [], learnMoreTaughtMap: {}, learnMoreCoveredMap: { '56v': [ '1rq' ] }, learnMoreRequiredMap: {}, editHistory: {}, domainSubmissions: {}, answers: [], answerCount: '0', commentCount: '0', newCommentCount: '0', linkedMarkCount: '0', changeLogs: [ { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '18339', pageId: 'likelihood_function', userId: 'EricBruylant', edit: '0', type: 'deleteTag', createdAt: '2016-08-04 14:03:35', auxPageId: 'start_meta_tag', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' }, { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '18337', pageId: 'likelihood_function', userId: 'EricBruylant', edit: '0', type: 'newTag', createdAt: '2016-08-04 14:03:34', auxPageId: 'c_class_meta_tag', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' }, { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '18125', pageId: 'likelihood_function', userId: 'AlexeiAndreev', edit: '3', type: 'newEdit', createdAt: '2016-08-02 17:12:50', auxPageId: '', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' }, { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '18119', pageId: 'likelihood_function', userId: 'AlexeiAndreev', edit: '0', type: 'newSubject', createdAt: '2016-08-02 17:10:41', auxPageId: 'bayesian_likelihood', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' }, { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '18117', pageId: 'likelihood_function', userId: 'AlexeiAndreev', edit: '0', type: 'newRequirement', createdAt: '2016-08-02 17:10:30', auxPageId: 'bayesian_likelihood', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' }, { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '18116', pageId: 'likelihood_function', userId: 'AlexeiAndreev', edit: '0', type: 'newRequirement', createdAt: '2016-08-02 17:10:09', auxPageId: 'math2', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' }, { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '18114', pageId: 'likelihood_function', userId: 'AlexeiAndreev', edit: '0', type: 'newTeacher', createdAt: '2016-08-02 17:09:22', auxPageId: 'likelihood_function', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' }, { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '18115', pageId: 'likelihood_function', userId: 'AlexeiAndreev', edit: '0', type: 'newSubject', createdAt: '2016-08-02 17:09:22', auxPageId: 'likelihood_function', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' }, { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '18102', pageId: 'likelihood_function', userId: 'AlexeiAndreev', edit: '0', type: 'deleteChild', createdAt: '2016-08-02 17:05:31', auxPageId: 'likelihood_notation', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' }, { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '17950', pageId: 'likelihood_function', userId: 'AlexeiAndreev', edit: '0', type: 'newTeacher', createdAt: '2016-08-01 23:33:52', auxPageId: 'bayes_rule_odds', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' }, { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '15975', pageId: 'likelihood_function', userId: 'NateSoares', edit: '2', type: 'newEdit', createdAt: '2016-07-07 14:42:58', auxPageId: '', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' }, { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '15948', pageId: 'likelihood_function', userId: 'NateSoares', edit: '0', type: 'newChild', createdAt: '2016-07-07 06:09:50', auxPageId: 'likelihood_notation', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' }, { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '15946', pageId: 'likelihood_function', userId: 'NateSoares', edit: '0', type: 'newParent', createdAt: '2016-07-07 06:09:24', auxPageId: 'bayesian_likelihood', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' }, { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '15947', pageId: 'likelihood_function', userId: 'NateSoares', edit: '0', type: 'newTag', createdAt: '2016-07-07 06:09:24', auxPageId: 'start_meta_tag', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' }, { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '15944', pageId: 'likelihood_function', userId: 'NateSoares', edit: '1', type: 'newEdit', createdAt: '2016-07-07 06:09:23', auxPageId: '', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' } ], feedSubmissions: [], searchStrings: {}, hasChildren: 'false', hasParents: 'true', redAliases: {}, improvementTagIds: [], nonMetaTagIds: [], todos: [], slowDownMap: 'null', speedUpMap: 'null', arcPageIds: 'null', contentRequests: {} }