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For example, Laplace used the rule to estimate a probability of the sun rising tomorrow, given that it had risen every day for the past 5000 years, and arrived at odds of around 1826251:1\. But today when we have physical knowledge of the Sun's operation, not every possible 'rate at which the Sun rises each day' is undistinguished\. Furthermore, even in Laplace's time, he should have perhaps thought it especially likely a priori that "the Sun always rises" and "the Sun never rises" were distinguished as unusually likely frequencies of the Sun rising, a priori\.

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